The recent visit of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, has exposed a harsh reality about Somali politics—one driven by emotion rather than strategy. Just months ago, Somalia’s President was preaching to the people about Ethiopia’s hostile intentions, accusing them of seeking access to Somalia’s coastline and engaging in a diplomatic war against Somali sovereignty. Yet, when Abiy arrived, there was no clear response, no accountability, and no sign of a well-thought-out foreign policy from the Somali leadership.
Ethiopia’s Strategic Foreign Policy
Ethiopia, unlike Somalia, operates with a clear and well-defined foreign policy. Its goals are transparent: securing access to the sea, building a naval force, and forming strategic alliances with regional and global powers such as the UAE, Israel, and France. These are calculated moves to strengthen Ethiopia’s economic and military position. The current Ethiopian administration is following the same long-term vision that previous leaders pursued, demonstrating continuity in its national strategy.
The Absence of a Somali Foreign Agenda
In contrast, Somalia appears to have no foreign policy agenda, no long-term vision, and no ideological foundation guiding its political decisions. The government functions as a one-man show, where the leader makes emotional speeches instead of formulating strategies that safeguard national interests. The Somali political class lacks a deep understanding of realpolitik, often reacting to external threats with sentiment rather than analysis.
The recent agreements signed between Ethiopia and the self-declared independent region of Somaliland, without the consent of the Somali federal government, were a direct challenge to Somalia’s sovereignty. Yet, instead of a strong and united response, the Somali leadership has remained indecisive, further exposing its weaknesses.
Selling the Country Without Noticing
Somali politicians have become masters of self-deception. They fail to recognize that their inaction and lack of strategic thinking are slowly eroding the country’s sovereignty. Their weakness emboldens external powers, making Somalia an easy target for manipulation. The visit of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister was not a gesture of reconciliation; it was a calculated move to reaffirm Ethiopia’s influence over Somalia while avoiding accountability for past diplomatic offenses.
Until Somalia develops a coherent foreign policy, built on national interests rather than emotions, it will continue to be a weak player in the Horn of Africa. The delusion must end—Somali leaders must wake up to the reality that the world operates on strategy, not empty rhetoric.
