Ethiopia’s ambitions in Somalia extend far beyond the quest for access to the Red Sea. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has pursued a vision shaped by broader geopolitical interests. However, this vision is not solely Abiy’s; it originates from external actors with vested interests in granting Ethiopia naval access to the Red Sea. These actors, including Western and Middle Eastern nations, are influencing the region’s future in profound ways.
The External Players and Their Influence
Countries like France and the UAE are playing pivotal roles in reshaping Ethiopia’s naval capabilities. France has actively funded Ethiopia’s nascent navy, while the UAE has heavily invested in regional ports, anticipating Ethiopia’s eventual control. These strategic moves align with the broader goal of empowering Ethiopia to serve as a dominant force in the Red Sea.
Adding another layer to this complex geopolitical game, the Trump administration proposed recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty in exchange for concessions. This recognition would potentially realign the power dynamics in the Horn of Africa, creating further fragmentation within Somalia while strengthening external influence over the region’s resources and strategic assets.
Somalia’s Leadership Crisis
Somalia’s leadership remains woefully unprepared to counter these external pressures. Lacking vision, unity, and strategic planning, Somali leaders have become easy targets for manipulation. Many politicians appear more focused on internal power struggles than on the broader geopolitical challenges their nation faces. The federal government’s preoccupation with silencing opposition to secure another term leaves the country vulnerable to foreign exploitation.
At the state level, regional administrations often work with foreign adversaries, further dividing the nation. Instead of fostering unity, they exacerbate Somalia’s fragility, making it even harder to resist external interference.
The People and the Uncertain Future
Meanwhile, ordinary Somalis are waking up to the harsh realities of their nation’s predicament but lack the comprehension or tools to influence the trajectory. The future of Somali children appears increasingly bleak, overshadowed by the selfishness and short-sightedness of today’s leaders.
As foreign actors continue to shape Somalia’s destiny, Somali politicians remain distracted by their internal battles. Without a cohesive strategy to counter these geopolitical maneuvers, Somalia risks losing control over its sovereignty and its future.
A Call for Vision and Unity
The time is now for Somali leaders to rise above their petty rivalries and adopt a unified vision for the nation. By addressing the root causes of division and prioritizing the welfare of future generations, Somalia can reclaim its agency in the geopolitical chessboard. Only through visionary leadership and national unity can the country safeguard its sovereignty and secure a brighter future for its people.
